In this paper, we first use the Public Plans Database (PPD) to evaluate the average asset allocation scheme of U.S. public pension plans and how it has changed over time. Next, we use Horizon Actuarial Services’ 2021 Survey of Capital Market Assumptions as independent forecasts of expected returns, risk, and correlation for the major asset classes in which U.S. public pension plans invest. Using the average asset allocation scheme as well as the return and risk forecasts, we create 1,000 simulations to estimate the probability of the average public pension plan achieving a 7% return over a 10-year investment horizon.